New Population Projections

On 24 May 2018 ONS published new 2016-based population projections for local authorities. The projections for Bristol are available from the Bristol City Council Population web page

If recent trends continue, the total population of Bristol is projected to increase by 95,100 people over the 25 year period (2016-2041) to reach a total population of 551,100 by 2041.  This is a projected increase of 21% which is higher than the projection for England of 12% and a higher percentage increase than the other eight English Core Cities.

Over the next decade, the population increase in Bristol in terms of numbers is projected to be the 5^th highest of all LAs after Birmingham, Tower Hamlets, Coventry and Manchester. By mid-2027 Bristol local authority is projected to have a population of more than half a million usual residents.

Please note… these projections are trend-based projections, which mean assumptions for future levels of births, deaths and migration are based on observed levels mainly over the 2011 to 2016 period. These projections show what the population will be if the trends assumed continue. They provide the best estimates of the future population of English regions and local authorities currently available. The projections do not attempt to predict the impact that future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances, local development policy, the capacity of an area to accommodate population or other factors might have on demographic behaviour. Projections become increasingly uncertain the further they are carried forward due to the inherent uncertainty of demographic behaviour.

Jayne Mills

Strategic City Planning/Insight, Performance & Intelligence | Bristol City Council